The Barack Obama who steps out of Air Force One on November 6 in Mumbai, will be very different from the one who took oath in front of a record million people at Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington DC, even as the rest of the world looked on in awe. When he began, he was hailed at home and feted abroad, as a great beacon of hope, a harbinger of change.
Barack Obama is guilty of choosing the easy path over the right path on more occasion than one. The last minute decision to leave Amritsar out of the President's itinerary is fuelled by fear of domestic political ramifications.
Scared by the rabble rousing in the conservative American media and worried about the impact the image of a President wearing a cloth over his head would have on already suspicious citizens, the President's aides decided it was too much of a risk for Obama to visit the Golden Temple.
Their fear compounded by the fact that a latest study by the Pew Research Centre had found that one in six Americans believed that Obama is Muslim.
He could have done what he promised at Cairo, used his power to build the world he sought and set a personal example by demonstrating that wearing a skull cap does not mean that someone is Muslim and that visiting a temple of another religion does not weaken belief in your own faith.
But instead he chose the easy path over the right path, blaming the myopia of others instead of striving to rise above.
Obama has good reason to be worried. His approval ratings are on a sharp downward spiral. According to a Bloomberg National Opinion Poll, four out of 10 Americans who voted for Obama no longer support him. The Democrats have been just handed a major reversal in the mid-term elections of November 2. Life for Obama is suddenly a whole lot tougher.
Make no mistake, Obama will deliver a stirring speech from the cradle of the world's largest democracy when he addresses the joint session of Parliament. But the key question is, will Obama's visit be more about symbolism or substance. Will rhetoric triumph over realpolitik?
The litmus test for Obama's sincerity will be whether he uses the opportunity to expressly endorse India's candidature as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. So far the Americans have said the right things about India's legitimate claims to a spot in the expanded UNSC, but no guarantees have been laid out.
In a visit that lacks a big ticket idea like the Indo-US nuclear deal, which was the highlight of President Bush's visit, the UNSC endorsement could prove to be the soul stirring moment that lifts Obama's visit from the ordinary to the extraordinary.
The ultimate expansion of the UNSC may not happen any time soon, but by backing India unconditionally, Obama would have demonstrated that the Indo-US strategic partnership is not empty talk but a goal the American President is prepared to push strongly.
This, of course, could mean upsetting Pakistan, a risk that the American President is in no position to take. Given his desire to pull American troops out of Afghanistan at the first available opportunity, Obama has no option but to keep the Pakistani military establishment in good humour, even as they continue playing their dangerous double game on terror.
US military aid to Pakistan is a major bone of contention for India. Weapon systems like the Harpoon Anti-Ship missiles, P3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft or the advanced AN/TPS-77 radar system that the US is selling to Pakistan have very limited use in counter-insurgency operations and are far more handy in a conventional military confrontation, most likely to be used against India.
The recent bad blood over America not sharing the name of terror operative David Headley with India before or immediately after 26/11 has shown that there is still a trust deficit that exists between the two countries.
While both sides will outwardly strive to downplay suspicions, America's unwillingness to share specific information on Headley has revealed that while it is prepared to pass on most time sensitive information to India, it is not above holding back information that may impact America's war in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.
The Headley saga has left a bitter taste in Delhi's mouth. Officials can no longer be certain of what America is hiding even as it claims to be partnering India in fighting the war against terror.
Suspicions are sharpest when it comes to weapons purchase. The US government is bearing down hard on New Delhi to purchase weapon systems made by American defence manufacturers. At stake are $50 billion dollars and the sustenance of at least 30,000 domestic jobs in the US. One of President Obama's key tasks is to actively push the case of the American defence lobby.
But the recent example of the leaked contract documents for the C 130 J Hercules transport aircraft shows that India must walk the road of defence cooperation with the US with a lot of wariness.
The US has left out five pieces of high-end equipment from the C 130 J aircraft being supplied to India next year. This is being done because of India's reluctance to sign the Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement or the CISMOA agreement.
The chiefs of India's defence forces are wary of signing an agreement that gives the Americans the right to monitor whether any reverse engineering has been carried out on military hardware supplied by Washington. The Indian defence establishment believes that the disadvantages of signing this agreement with America far outweigh the advantages.
The last few decades are littered with examples of the US proving to be a highly unreliable weapons supplier for India. The apprehension about the so-called 'Kill Switches' that America secretly installs on weapons sold to foreign countries, may or may not be true, but the fact remains that domestic law gives the US Congress the right to revise any defence accord the President may enter into.
The last thing that India would want is for expensive American weapons to be rendered unusable when the country needs them the most. Given that the Russian defence industry is in serious decline and that the Isrealis do not have the wherewithal to meet all of India's requirements, India has no option but to push Indo-US defence ties further. But it is a road marked with landmines. Every dollar spent must be leveraged to the maximum extent.
The American ambassador in all his interactions with the Indian press has been trying hard to keep expectations from the Obama visit low. If expectations are contained, chances for disappointment are lower.
Obama rode to power on the back of historic expectations. No matter how hard he tries he is unlikely to fulfill them. Therein lies a lesson for Rahul Gandhi as well. But that's matter for another story.
