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Friday, November 5, 2010

eleven pionts on obama's india visit

Cutting through the hoopla being created by the media about the Obama visit, how should the success or failure of the visit be judged? Already, the government's spin-doctors have gone on an overdrive to dampen expectations by claiming that it will not be a big bang visit. Clearly, they do not expect anything substantial to emerge from the visit which no doubt would still occupy acres of newsprint and air-time till next Tuesday.
Yet the question is how would one be able to say whether the visit of the US president has achieved anything? From the Indian point of view, the visit should be judged on the following issues:
1. An improved regional understanding and signs that Indian and US policies in South Asia are becoming more compatible;
2. Clarity about why the US is arming Pakistan and why it has failed to pressure Islamabad to discard its recourse to terrorism against India and Afghanistan;
3. Clarity about the US end-game in Afghanistan. The current signals are that the solution being sought through reconciliation with the Taliban will serve Pakistan's geo-political interests and hamper India's participation in regional development and its pursuit of connectivity across Pakistan's western frontiers;
4. The current unrest in Kashmir opens up dangers of US interference - especially as Pakistan is pushing for it and India's diplomatic hand has become weaker. Will Obama stay away from this issue during the visit?
5. Better comprehension of Obama's thinking about the challenge posed by a rising China. This would include US attitude towards China's assertive behaviour in the South China Sea as well as vis-à-vis India and the strengthening of its presence in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK);
6. Concrete progress with regard to easing export control on high and dual-use technology to India including removal of subsidiaries of ISRO, DRDO and BARC from the US entities list;
7. Progress in enhancing space co-operation given India's credible space related capacities. While the signing of a Commercial Space Launch Agreement (CSLA) will be a positive step, will the US give any indication that it is willing to lift this co-operation from the shadow of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)?
8. On the non-proliferation front, progress in promoting India's membership of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG), MTCR, the Australia Group and other such regimes;
9. An improved understanding on India's energy security problems and the easing of pressure on India's energy relations with Iran;
10. Support for India's permanent membership of the UN Security Council. Obama says that India is "indispensible for the US in the 21st century" - therefore, the support for the UNSC must follow from this as one cannot have a huge gap between rhetoric and reality; and lastly,
11. Giving India satisfaction on counter-terrorism co-operation. India remains dissatisfied on this count because of the revelations in the David Coleman Headley case and needs to know how much information directly related to Pakistan is the US actually sharing?