"winnie the pooh "

Marriage is the institution where the woman loses her the name and the man his liquidity -Himanshu Gaur

Indian weddings are very bright events, filled with ritual and celebration that continue for several days. They are generally not small affairs, with anywhere between 100 to 10,000 people attending.. Recently I got a chance to witness one !  pooh! that’s the name given by me to her actually the name poonam reminds me of my old class mate Poonam Thapa, with two chutiyas hanging around in the junior school, we both together used to share the food at break time all I remember that she used to stole the jam from my tiffen box in such a brilliant way as Ramamalinga Raju manipulating satyam ‘bubble always bursts ‘ ! but pooh was different -bit better! J and that lead me crazy to attend the phenomena itself !

 

A journey of thousands of miles begins with a single step , but mine begun with a threatening SMS. How dare I disobey? So we were kicked off on 20^th morning 5 am for dilli via Northern railways a maiden trip  with Mr. sharma having xtra normal senses ! while the falling of the mists..

Indian Railways ! aha!  the only place where you can beautifully adjust with 2 bags and 18 relatives ! soon indian railway tracks would be also recorded in some limca books for being the the longest toilet of the world- “Kashmir to kanyakumari” ! but I will always remember the muslim girl with burqa sitting next to us, for I wanted to see her face ‘ab hataeyi ,ab hataeygi ..”  while Sharma ji was busy in his Buggati and Tata motors !

His Holiness “The Lord Guru dev-dev ali sahab” steps out in Delhi! thou all spectators bow down thee heads for the King !!

So after some chicken shit liability, we enter the Delhi metro, the experience of garguantum awesomeness was in our minds, standing in Delhi metro after sitting in Indian railways was like seeking the difference between Manisha koirala and Priyanka chopra ! “handles were latke but in absence of jhatke” !

Our nation has 4 names but Mr  Sharma has 6 names !! shocked?? Have a look - “BALLOOO, BALLI, SHARMEY, BABLU, RATAN TATA  and officially VIVEK!”
Finally i stepped along with my counterpart Mr Sharma, an enthusiastically -inert automotive engineer! He says the word “IDIOSYNCRATIC “  suits him, I say the “BULL” J. Speaks rare but whenever he speaks the confidence is parallel to VVS Laxman’s against kangaroos!Strengths – Technically very -very strong, hard working (one not which is mentioned in his CV :P)Things you can learn from him – how to measure an-x -arousal that a women generates from Mercedes,  how to throw a professional smile on a giggling joke and  how to write a  sms  “can u write something on….” !

Finally the evening at the white apartments! oh this pooh what could not she do for a picture? Wasting onions!!!OMG she is the richest Delhite !!

Sandeep the unknown “X” arrives the same evening filled his mobile NOkia5200 with character assigned jokes!  “ek baar bablu ne………” a typical standup comedian, can turn the environment on his might to laughter blast on a trivial cause !
Range – 250 miles, surface to surface !
Intensity – very -very Effective 

E- Rinku…. Gajar –ak juice piyali??? Ya halwa khaeli?
Name – Rinkaj Kandwal,
Nick names- Tidda, rinku, chintu,
Things you can learn from him – how to lock the msg folder with a password, how   to walk like a sheep without listening back ,chatting on the cell phone, and how to make clean salad with gobbling up half of it ! his face matches with the chest of Salman khan! always clean shaved!

So we 7 boys at the uncle’s flat having inbuilt suvidhajanak toilet ! people do work from home but those of you  who work from Toilet just throw a smile..  aha..i noted all.. thanks!! 

Had to deliver the afternoon at CP new Delhi ! Rajiv chowk metro stn ! My heart at Delhi !

How dare you look at me????? Don’t you see I have 7 brothers ????? gurrrrrr …!!

Now this is something the center of my research studies! One of my Irish friend Nelly have always been crazy for this, lost a big opportunity to send her some fresh stock. She always wanted to know ‘is this something supernatural”? Or is there something stronger than RUM!!!

I always appreciate these bagpipers for their stamina ! pooooooo..poooooooo !!But they wait and are only hard if bailout packages are given out!
 

22jan2011 6.32pm out side New GH6/160 “yaha kya ho rha hai ?aaj yaha shadi hai kya?” – street passers 

                  “Tu mera bhai hai” whats next? Tu meri behen????lolzz

                                      Sharmaji and sandeep !

Yaayyyyy!!! Himanshu is back ! warm welcome!

so this is the time I finally enter the market after experimenting Jijaji’s Gulmarg and lowers from Gole market! Unforgettable experience !

  

So here i started the bang !

We are the disco dancers oho ho ho! But this looks more like a Catholic Church ceremony ‘praise the lord, praise the lord ‘

Same day 22^nd jan, mehndi night Neha on the left, a sincere and sober girl, who is always worried about if her cellular number is shown in the profile information at the Facebook. “hello himanshu just wanna say u look like….oppps opps I was supposed to write this in Espanola (spanish) else she will thrash me up “el neha es la muchacha más decente e inocente de la clase….” :-p

                               you need to work more harder dude !

So after we had a small park trip here was a guy to support me !

Hemant! often called Deepak..whose name I always misconstrue with his Chinese brother.

His Weakness – ‘DIL’

Range – to be tested.

USP(unique selling point)-Compatible/adaptable to any group -chicks to philosophers!

 

The great suh! I dare u to touch the bottle neck to ur tongue ! hai itna dumm?

                     “my mehndi is better than yours“ !!! Racist women!!

 

HU-JINTAU the ‘shona babu’

He is the most powerful person from pashcim vihar to entire south east Asia.

Frequency – 50,000 MHz

Voltage-4000000 KV

Pressure- 500000 pascal

Intensity –very very high

Rage -2500 miles, surface to surface, surface to water !

Unlike pooh and suh the name Hu-Jintau was given to him by GURU SAHAB’s holiness for his unmeasurable affection for Chinese mobiles.

This was the last of 22^ndjan I clicked with a right-angled triangle, via my shoes! Goodnight folks! “abe salo light toh band kardo “..!

So with the 23^rd morning we were back again to the 6/160 with the firm determination of performing last night act again! For the single colored holi started around 11am

                     Good morning Deepak! my teeth are more white than yours!!!

So after the ‘udghaatan’ here comes the suh’s turn. Alas ..!Pooh & suh in tears!

Hey hello where’s Poonam Negi? she loves to giggle at these moments ! :-p

Will be always thankful to maamiji she gave a new word “chuchuwane” instead of ringing! “e-bhai yu phone chuchuwane ch”! so guys I will try at my highest level to get recognized this word from the oxford university press for their 2012 dictionary edition !

Ladies always have an ambition to put their kids faces on the camera’s lenses! I further feel this could provide a boost for the digital camera industry that was kicked by camera –mobile phones.

“Try and try then you will reach to your goal” Rashmi still trying for her baby picture to be clicked! So she squeezes poor shivansh between a haldi hath ritual..  I just wanna say her “tu hogi kamyab ek din..oho mann me hai vishwas pura hai vishawas….”

She have done it !!!!! my goodness! Aksar mehnat he manzil tak pohchati hai!!

This is called an effort guys..an inspiring role model for you all readers.

 “Dear shivansh I have taken your perfect picture as ur mum wanted! say her congrats, chal ab paa kar mama ko “ :-P

Name : pankaj shiamak kandwal

Born : 6^th Feb 1984

Aim- Richest human by 2014(if 2012 phenomena proved false J)

Strengths : chalo bulawa aya hai…, 9 mangalvar vrat, 40shaniwar vrat,

Best dialogues : I tho love u papa-shiamak davar, jai jammu g, jai mata di, jai maa kali.Guys this is one of the most fantastic creatures I have ever come cross, doesn’t even washes his face properly(proof- the picture itself J) and carries 3 cellulars! And number of 3 MDs in his pocket! he is perfect allrounder ctizen of this country ! an aspiring IAS,Dancer,actor,MD,singer,Lyricst,philosopher and a billionare! a unique collection! But I love the way how beautifully he is tilting towards papa (shiamak Davar) from Mata!

A combo pack!

what a family! Poor Pooh..would have been overwhelmed with a ton of immediate –abrupt love that originated all of sudden !

This was the end of the haldi hath ritual, dramatic but with a twist! which I refer to the emotions of a rational human in this open economy, for example, just scroll 5 pictures above suh is in deep weep, now she is dancing ‘sara rara puua-puan..chali re chali motor..”. the irony I just wanna convey with this picture is that how does a human changes the emotions, or the milieu he/she is dwelling is responsible for this? So here is a questions for all Socrates kind people “how can the law of inertia, probably the second law of Newton can be applied in sensible way to overcome the conflict of emotions of feelings?”

Here comes the much awaited champ ! Babbu bhai MD,CEO,Chairman- GMPC a philanthropic organization with a motive of social service and revenue generation. As a wise man have said a “a group of people with diversified thoughts can change the world “ the lines suits best on the leader itself. GMPC is a joint venture of Babbu bheji and Pankaj Nautiyal bhulla(who would be currently in the role of pooh was a month ago; busy in the aadan- pradaan of text mgs “hello ji kaise ho??kya kar rahe ho?? With a night calling pack of airtel :-P) Saying Babbu bhai as “bheji” (in gharwali) always reminds me of my childhood days at selakui where my parents & satish mama named me “bheji” and asked all kids to pay the respect for being eldest in the group and among the siblings. So then became a tradition: “oye bheji teri batting hai” ,“oye bheji dekhle bhai ni hai??”, even in school few of neighbor boys would shout out “bheji extra pen hai”? blah blah blah..! coming out of the sarcastic memories I just realized that this was the time to be dressed.

Clothing in different brands, but from the soul everyone has a burglar inside!

So here comes the entry!

Jijja ji shows his face like a partially topless model at the launch of a new sports bike!  But folks I have an idea the old gentleman standing on  right beside chintu can be the perfect candidate to replace the old narcissistic man of the MDH massala ad ! ‘ASLI MASALE SACH SACH , MDH –MDH !‘

So were the Ashwariyas ready in advance!

Tina on the left she have turned down the Nobel Peace Prize an incredible 78 times simply because she don’t want the unnecessary attention for being such an exemplary example of a fantastic, kind, generous and being ever ready to help her fellow human!

And the Geetika on the right
Synonyms – Geetu ,Geet rani, Geet sona 
since I can remember Geetika have been The World’s most softest Person, apart from pankaj k. being the richest!(m totally blessed that they both are in my  network:).Her heart is filled with so much goodness, grace and benevolence that appreciation for all life simply pours forth from her decent good looking dressing! Only thing you can learn from her how to ask the same person 3 times a day “aur ajkal kya chal raha hai?”(imagine!)

                               “How much ??…. Oh! no no ….Se jada ni dene “

When everyone was showing his/her talent out, there was a hidden ‘basketball’ Rahul-who was still in the experiments! When I asked him what’s the mean of his T-shirt’s quotation?

He replies “ye humein padhya nahi abhi” lolzz is it the syllabus of his next class?, but I regret I didn’t insisted him ‘apni English wali maam se puch k aana’!

Anyway that was going some sort of roadies interview before I asked him a scholarly question “what’s the difference between: will and shall?”

And surprisingly no reply except few “teri bas ki nahi hai attempts” in a copied US accent!

No doubt all charming faces! but these girls holding their ‘lungis’ look like Ramesh Powar running a marathon!

Love is composed of a single soul inhabiting two bodies..Two souls with but a single thought, Two hearts that beat as one..wish you both a very happy married life !

This picture simply reminds me of the ‘seher ki ladki’ video of Ravina Tandon, the actress is simply surrounded by number of decent dressed girl, giving her a stiff competition!

While everyone was on the deck there was an exception too!

3500…tent k, 4500..khane k .. hhmmhmm 

Jija ji who slightly differs the Bollywood actor Govinda but lacks his dancing talent! An astute political analyst and a staunch supporter of Indian National Congress!

How does the government deny the human rights violation in Kashmir when I found one on the spot itself! And that’s the reason of the India’s poor ranking in HDI index! I could have called KG Balakrishnan Ex-CJI- the Chairman of Human Rights Commission of the country, but alas he himself being all set to be the first casualty of 2011, 10000crore land scam!

‘The most dangerous food is wedding cake’.. Hang on its ‘daal-bhaat ‘ ..So finally pooh tastes the food for the first time in her life, what a joy and excitement! arey Jija ji aap bhi kha lo kab tak chammach pakad k rakhoge??

So by this time it was already 24^th jan, 12:05 am, and we was off to 6/355 for a change!(not the obama’s change J) finally we returned after 1.5 hrs and that’s all I noticed on coming back !

Jan 24^th 1:35am at GH6/355, For the change! Back again to the desi dress! A brainstorming session between two auto labours- pankaj bhai and our aspiring Ratan Tata, while I change channel to Telebrands at TV, “pehle mere hath aise nahi thay par jabse maine, telebrands ka bamboo facepack use kiya meri skin chamak uthi!” lolzzz

This was totally awefull wastage of food at any cost wasn’t acceptable! Its no better than a food scam of 50 billion dollars when the annual Indian agricultural output stands at 150 billion dollars!

Dancing is hidden language of soul I agree, but it shouldn’t be on the cost of others! May his soul rest in peace!

A side view of a hostel, at Indian School of Family, I think I have to complain the dean, boys aren’t allowed here!

So everyone remained unslept, but were slept :

                           

 “Upar diye gaye dono chitro me 10 antar khojiye, prtayek bacche ko ek- ek laddu milega“ :-p

                          Sleeping is an exercise! a nostril exercise :-p 

              I didn’t knew who was this guy until Deepak told me “band wala" 

                         Why should girls have all the fun??Sleeping is a fun too !

                              Ab koi nahi hansega! else dekh lena fir ..!

                               No worries, mera time bhi aayega !

                                   Finally I wake up, to cover the circles !

So is this increasing order or decreasing order? Glass half full or empty?? Takes open
 

Sandeep, babbu bhai and pankaj bhaiya. Here are some of the intellectuals with the keen observation on the rites !

                          Sandeep: “ek baar sardar ne apni biwi ko…”

                  The media team: much better than Indian TV and AAJ TAK

Band wala, I forgot to ask his good name all I can guess he would be some, ‘ram baran singh’ or ‘chander dev kumar’ this is all my experience can call!

When I asked this guy “hey whats inside the bag u r carrying?” he replies “arey isme baja ,hai baja !!“

This was the coffee machine that supported well everyone throughout the night!    KUDOS!!!!

Nanaji - only man I found in delhi with a pleasing personality as soon he entered D606 began “aaeeee mera daadi wala bacha, tu mera daadi wala bacha…” pretty fortunate he didn’t slipped off his tongue on the word ‘daadi’ :-p

                                  He has a unique traditional sutta style too!

                               Tu hi toh jannat meri, Tu hi mera junoon..

                               Tu hi to mannat meri, Tu hi rooh ka sukoon..

                               Tu hi aakhion ki thandak, tu hi dil ki hai dastak..

             What’s the combination of the DL and BF? any takers out there?

So here comes pankaj’s update at facebook “in dubai right now ,I v.v sad, missing poonam sis very much..”

Who says Indians are pretty behind in Innovation? Namaste! Pankaj and Praveen! P for P, sounds much like PC for PC!

P.chidambram for Priyanka chopra!

Rashmi, the female version of Jullian Assange ! now I want to write 3 pages on this human being but for now m sparing u all!  Even if I take a picture of a dog out side in the street she’ll chase the dog and convey him “ye na teri photo apne blog me dalega aur likhega….” From the picture her face looks if she have been bribed over! Even no doubt if she would have been trained from ISI agents, as she is addicted to read one’s personal msgs!

My suggestion to her – join some cyber hacking agency !

3 things she have taught her son, little chinchpokli :

1. Beta bolo ‘tota’

2. bolo chidya

3. eyes maro eyes !!!

Dear Rashmi ‘apkhua ni huwandan ‘ thoda Jija ji k liye bhi chhod do..sara khud he khayegi kya??Greedy lady !

His holiness having chai a durlabh drishya! ; Chai – I refer to the uncountable noun, is an integral part of our system, from the local kutchery of Dehradun to the Ministry of external affairs for the application of passport I found chai with pani a must !

Deepa the forgotten road to the white apartments 6/160, was washing clothes since morning; a perfect contender for a ‘washing clothes reality show’!

Vinita : She have been the most humble person  in history.  And the most hardworking! I was privileged to have a picture with her! A strong candidate for next season of Big Boss to play the role of Shewta Tiwari, only if I can arrange for some Dolly Bindra!

Mr &and Mrs - So finally the naughty pooh turns to be a behenji in just one day! Our economy always lagged for such growth rate!

                                         It looks some food scam!

I salute this guy from the bottom of my heart! Same eve chintu was lecturing on physics, I woke up  and I and asked him “is it possible to to measure pressure in the space? In the zero gravity situation?” he shyingly replies “tu apna kaam kar”! but insult is an insult! dear rinkaj I will be taking out the answer from u one day! And Gaur mean it !

Metro station of rajiv chowk , slightly better than a mumbai central railway station! But a thing what metro have given delhites apart from infra & jobs ‘tameez and tehzeb’ passengers forming straight line much better and expected than the cattle class!

             When in doubt don't double cross the road.@ Barakhamba!

The best part of being tall is you get to smell the shampoo and fresh air, when stucked in a metro...Others smell the armpits.     

WAW..! what a family !!!! for the 4 days the little boy kept insisting me ‘maeri photu khinch ..” and I obeyed him all 4 times!

Jija ji always have a unique sitting style! As the congress gentleman have! While sandeep good at monkey scratching !

                                

 Poonam Negi !  a brilliant dancer and a giggler, could have known her better! By the way she resembles with Uma Bharti the most :) with her actions esp by the red tilak on her forehead :-P!

                                             

                                           

Alka genius : “we should respect our country and should be proud of its rich heritage…” oh alka m going to Hills at Asaram Bapu camp ! 

                                 

   Rohini wale panditji 3yrs and he still remembers my name ! “aao gaur sahab ..”

               Kuch jada pyaar mat karo..rashmi pehle se hi bigadi hui hai !

Mukesh and Tina, so u guys have done a deal on Krishna – godavari D3 Basin oil exploration? Last time I heard RIL was to sue ADAG? Hello mr Mukesh keep an eye on ur wife as well Mumbai Indians Harbhjan singh is lifting her up!

           Rinkaj, I like this boy!  Frankly A living inspiration for all !

                                                       

      Waw..! what a duo !!! :-P reminds me of Farah khan and Saroj khan!

           

                                       

   25 jan- “abe ni kal he chalna hai…aaj kaise jayenge?? all routes sealed !

 

The future of Indian Economy! Even if we are growing with 9.8% annually, that means 98 % of indian population grows with 0.98%. physically mentally and publically! I would be glad if this boy turns out to be next lalit modi and creates a ‘IGDL’ – Indian Gilli Danda League !

                                           

If you havent clicked a picture with Geet sona, that means your stomach won’t be digesting your dinner! But I would much rather appreciate if the duo would have clicked this at some nainital or kullu-manali with a better background! ))))

                                  

                       

                                    “magic moments”

                                 

26 jan, missed a close wedding of Sarah in Dehradun, I was patriotic enough to sniff the loss but today when it comes to politics then Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel! But I am still proud -mera Bharat mahan !

                                 

“e- bheji kab aan tein “ this was the statement my badi bua used to speak to my daddy after her wedding, even pooh would have said something similair!

                                  

 Finally pooh leaves, everyone in tears except Poonam Negi , and I saw her giggling ,hey look what I saw this man looks like Nitin Gadkari !

                                 

  Its not a Eden Gardens, but still… this women would too have got emotional kuch yaad aaya hoga ise bhi.. may be apni jawani..!

  

       

So here leaves pooh..! Everyone left emotional, but Rashmi always a step ahead of everyone, dunia se 2 kadam aage ! all set for another probe, truly she should have been in some CAG or JPC head.

                                   4 strong men at work !

One of my sincerest disciple Judas aka Deepak!  Just received his sms few mins ago!

                          

This was the last eve when, we all 7 boys once gain were together, cherishing the moments we spend together..



                             
                                                        few of the globally talented people !

                                    
                        

                  ROMANCE !!! if humans can do then why can’t birds ?

                           




                        

         So it’s the final click at 6/160 while we leave, Deepak gazes on..

                         

Near the Aggarwal sweet shop , Meera bagh ..was much moved with the smile of this beggar boy, the irony of this country.

                                     

So here goes Rashmi back to 606! A heartbreaking moment for all to miss the little kid, meeting and parting is the way of life..the word itself is a phenomena..sometimes too short and sometimes so long..huh .,.its all the way how we live.

                                 

                        

Poonam ji and sharma ji, its time to leave back ghar ko.. poonam still giggling :-)  its my last moment at 6/355, I just cried for being another day in Delhi, but my daddy used to say me in childhood “don’t cry because its over but smile its happened “ And while I couldn’t see to sympathize the emotional heart , certainly yes I do have much to smile about..

                            

So here Dehradun ki jaan in the metro, these 7 days have been one of the best time of my life , I felt so fulfilled , so ALIVE and satisfied. What a blessing to be a part of being with everyone !

I am going back to doon now, I don’t know exactly why other than I feel, like its right thing to do , it’s the time . time for what ? Again I don’t know. This chapter may be over but I am trying to believe that the story is certainly NOT. That god is still god and His way is best . I cling to psalm 116.7 “ be at rest once more, o my soul for the lord has been good to you “

My heart may be breaking, my future is uncertain ..but the lord is good.

27jan2011 -Stepped Dehradun at 4.30am and finally we reach vivek’s place by 5 am, a journey full of sweet memories, walking almost a mile from Ballupur in the dark morning in a lonely road with the ear phones on, carrying our luggage in the absence of auto rickshaws..missing the moments at of the uncle’s flat, wedding day park walk, or CP drive everything…

At last on my terrace, looking back the moments.and measuring the power of time..

                           

So with the click of a recent picture I have decided to closing of my Blogpost in Delhi, it began as a mean of sharing my experiences here with friends, you all..And connecting the dots in between, now I feel I have written in ample, so although life certainly goes on and there will always be much to share.. Thank you friend for joining me in this journey for laughing and crying, for jumping on any opportunity to give (happiness, giggles, the laughter, raps or jokes :)) and holding me up in your faithful prayers. I hope you were somehow blessed challenged, or encouraged along the way! The evening mist is about to rise up ..

May he receive the praise !

In his name

Amen

Much love

GURU

(guruism@aol.in)

                     

 

Storm Financial Will Happen All Over Again

I have been watching with interest the Storm Financial saga (and other similar cases). Inevitably in cases like this the attention is focused squarely on the operator as the doer of wrong and regulators and legislators take reactive action to try and prevent such things happening again. But what I want to focus on is the almost certain prospect that a Storm Financial case will occur again in the future. Why am I so convinced? Because the underlying fundamental investment strategy employed by Storm Financial was not illegal. The investment strategy was simply a leveraged play on the stock market taken too far and without proper and adequate investment controls. Right now I can buy stocks, I can borrow money to fund the purchase of those stocks, I can use my life savings to buy those stocks, I can take out a margin loan to buy those stocks, I can have too much exposure to those stocks, and so on.
As I have said before the only way to effectively minimise the chances of a Storm Financial happening again is to put more attention and resources into properly educating the workforce and our children about investing. The earlier the education process starts the better off we will all be. We have a compulsory superannuation system and so every worker has a vested interest in being better educated. The ability for one to self manage their super makes education even more important. But if people are unable to make informed decisions life savings and retirement incomes will continue to be lost or severely impaired. Not many people have the resources to recover from such losses, so government should work harder on proactive measures, rather than reactive regulatory and legal measures. It is too late then.

Financial Advice – Commissions are only part of the problem

There has been a lot of debate in this country about financial advice and specifically the issues associated with commissions skewing advice towards the more profitable products for advisors rather than clients. I think this is a good debate and removing commissions and focusing more on paid for advice is a good step.  But that is only part of the story. Unfortunately, there appears to be a perception that the bad advice has come only from the advisors receiving the commissions and that if you pay for advice the outcomes will be better. However, any advice received is only as good as the qualifications, knowledge and experience of the people giving the advice. I can see no evidence to suggest that if a consumer seeks paid for advice they will not be prevented from:

• investing in expensive and poorly designed products;
• investing a significant proportion of their savings in one asset or product;
• taking on inappropriate exposures; and
• exposing themselves to ridiculous levels of risk that were identifiable right from the start.

The reason this is the case is simply because many financial advisors do not understand the construct and risk of the products they recommend – whether they get a commission or not. The Basis Capital debacle is a very clear example. Sonray Capital looks like another. Now, the advisors may try to hide behind the rating agencies, but if that is the case then what advice were their clients paying for in the first place?
This is why we keep seeing people losing their life savings and wondering why. It takes a life time to save for retirement and yet you can lose it all overnight. Therefore, there must be a much greater focus on the skills and experience of the financial advisors. If that means advice becomes more expensive then it is a price worth paying. It will be a hell of a lot less than your life savings.

“Dhirubhaism“

  

This article is the result of an email forwarded by a friend of mine and after reading the email, I was sure it would qualify for this blog few of my thoughts are included , edit . The email was about the learnings of Dhirubhai Ambani, founder of Reliance narrated by his close friend A.G. Krishnamurthy of Mudra Communications. Inspired by the characteristics of Dhirubhai, Mr. Krishnamurthy coined the term “Dhirubhaism“ , which consisted of the insightful lessons from Dhirubhai. Some of the inspiring Dhirubhaism’s are mentioned below:

Note: ”I” in the article refers to Mr. Krishnamurthy. ”He” refers to Mr. Dhirubhai.

Roll up your sleeves and help

You and your team share the same DNA. Reliance, during Vimal’s heady days had organized a fashion show at the Convention Hall, at Ashoka Hotel in New Delhi.

As usual, every seat in the hall was taken, and there were an equal number of impatient guests outside, waiting to be seated. I was of course completely besieged, trying to handle the ensuing confusion, chaos and protests, when to my amazement and relief, I saw Dhirubhai at the door trying to pacify the guests.

Dhirubhai at that time was already a name to reckon with and a VIP himself, but that did not stop him from rolling up his sleeves and diving in to rescue a situation that had gone out of control. Most bosses in his place would have driven up in their swank cars at the last moment and given the manager a piece of their minds. Not Dhirubhai.

When things went wrong, he was the first person to sense that the circumstances would have been beyond his team’s control, rather than it being a slip on their part, as he trusted their capabilities implicitly. His first instinct was always to join his men in putting out the fire and not crucifying them for it. Sounds too good a boss to be true, doesn’t he? But then, that was Dhirubhai.

Be a safety net for your team

There used to be a time when our agency Mudra was the target of some extremely vicious propaganda by our peers, when on an almost daily basis my business ethics were put on trial.  I, on my part, putting on a brave front, never raised this subject during any of my meetings with Dhirubhai.

But one day, during a particularly nasty spell, he gently asked me if I needed any help in combating it. That did it. That was all the help that I needed. Overwhelmed by his concern and compassion, I told him I could cope, but the knowledge that he knew and cared for what I was going through, and that he was there for me if I ever needed him, worked wonders for my confidence.

I went back a much taller man fully armed to face whatever came my way. By letting us know that he was always aware of the trials we underwent and that he was by our side through it all, he gave us the courage we never knew we had.

The silent benefactor

This was another of his remarkable traits. When he helped someone, he never ever breathed a word about it to anyone else. There have been none among us who haven’t known his kindness, yet he never went around broadcasting it.

He never used charity as a platform to gain publicity. Sometimes, he would even go to the extent of not letting the recipient know who the donor was. Such was the extent of his generosity. ‘Expect the unexpected’ just might have been coined for him

Dream big, but dream with your eyes open

His phenomenal achievement showed India that limitations were only in the mind. And that nothing was truly unattainable for those who dreamed big.

Whenever I tried to point out to him that a task seemed too big to be accomplished, he would reply: ‘ No is no answer!’ Not only did he dream big, he taught all of us to do so too. His one-line brief to me when we began Mudra was: ‘Make Vimal’s advertising the benchmark for fashion advertising in the country.’

At that time, we were just a tiny, fledgling agency, tucked away in Ahmedabad, struggling to put a team in place. When we presented the seemingly insurmountable to him, his favourite response was always: ‘It’s difficult but not impossible!’ And he was right. We did go on to achieve the impossible.

Both in its size and scope Vimal’s fashion shows were unprecedented in the country. Grand showroom openings, stunning experiments in print and poster work all combined to give the brand a truly benchmark image. But way back in 1980, no one would have believed it could have ever been possible. Except Dhirubhai.

But though he dreamed big, he was able to clearly distinguish between perception and reality and his favourite phrase ‘dream with your eyes open’ underlined this.

He never let preset norms govern his vision, yet he worked night and day familiarizing himself with every little nitty-gritty that constituted his dreams constantly sifting the wheat from the chaff. This is how, as he put it, even though he dreamed, none of his dreams turned into nightmares. And this is what gave him the courage to move from one orbit to the next despite tremendous odds.

Dhirubhai was indeed a man of many parts, as is evident. I am sure there are many people who display some of the traits mentioned above, in their working styles as well, but Dhirubhai was one of those rare people who demonstrated all of them, all the time.

Leave the professional alone

Much as people would like to believe, most owners [even managers and clients], though eager to hire the best professionals in the field, do so and then use them as extensions of their own personality. Every time I come across this, which is much too often, I am reminded of how Dhirubhai’s management techniques used to be [and still remain] so refreshingly different.

For instance, way back in the late 1970s when we decided to open an agency of our own, he asked me to name it. I carried a short list of three names, two Westernised and one Indian. It was a very different world back then. Everything Anglicised was considered ‘upmarket.’

There were hardly any agencies with Indian names barring my own ex-agency Shilpi and a few others like Ulka and Sistas. He looked at the list and asked me what my choice was. I said ‘Mudra’: it was the only name that suited my personality. And the spirit of the agency that I was to head.

I was very Indian and an Anglicised name on my visiting card would seem pretentious and contrived. No further questions were asked. No suggestions offered, just a plain and simple ‘Go ahead and do it.’ That was just the beginning.

He continued to give me total freedom — no supervision, no policing — in all my decisions thereafter. In fact, the only direction that he gave me, just once, was this: ‘Produce your best.’

His utter trust in me was what pushed me to never, ever let him down. I guess the simplest strategies are often the hardest to adopt. That was the secret of the Dhirubhai legend. It was not out of a book. It was a skillful blend of head and heart.

Change your orbit, constantly

To understand this statement, let me explain Dhirubhai’s ‘orbit theory.’

He would often explain that we are all born into an orbit. It is up to us to progress to the next. We could choose to live and die in the orbit that we are born in. But that would be a criminal waste of potential. When we push ourselves into the next orbit, we benefit not only ourselves but everyone connected with us.

Take India’s push for development. There was once a time our country’s growth rate was just 4 per cent, sarcastically referred to as the ‘Hindu growth rate.’ Look at us today, galloping along at a healthy 7-8 per cent.

This is no miracle. It is the product of a handful of determined orbit changers like Dhirubhai, all of whose efforts have benefited a larger sphere in their respective fields.

In a small way, I too have experienced the thrill of changing orbits with Mudra. In the 1980s, we leapt from the orbit of a small Ahmedabad ad agency to become the country’s third largest ad agency — in just under a decade.

However, when you change orbits, you will create friction. The good news is that your enemies from your previous orbit will never be able to reach you in your new one. By the time resentment builds up in your new orbit, you should move to the next level. And so on.

Changing orbits is the key to our progress as a nation.

The arm-around-the-shoulder leader

I have never seen any other empire builder nor the CEO of any big organisation do this [why, I never adopted this myself!].

It was Dhirubhai’s very own signature style. Whenever I went to meet him and if on that day, all the time that he could spare me was a short walk up to his car, he would instantly put his arm around me and proceed to discuss the issues at hand as we walked.

With that one simple gesture, he managed to achieve many things. I was put at ease instantaneously. I was made to feel like an equal who was loved and important enough to be considered close to him. And I would walk away from that meeting feeling so good about myself and the work I was doing!

This tendency that he had, to draw people towards him, manifested itself in countless ways. This was just one of them. He would never, ever exude an air of aloofness and exclusivity. He was always inviting people into sharing their thoughts and ideas, rather than shutting them out.

On hindsight I think, it must have required phenomenal generosity of spirit to be that inclusive. Yes, this was one of the things that was uniquely Dhirubhai — that warm arm around my shoulder that did much more than words in letting me know that I belonged, that I had his trust, and that I had him on my side!

The Dhirubhai theory of Supply creating Demand

He was not an MBA. Nor an economist. But yet he took traditional market theory and stood it on its head. And succeeded.

Yes, at a time when everyone in India would build capacities only after a careful study of market expectations, he went full steam ahead and created giants of manufacturing plants with unbelievable capacities. [Initial cap of Reliance Patalganga was 10,000 tonnes of PFY way back in 1980, while the market in India for it was approx. 6000 tonnes].

No doubt his instinct was backed by years and years of reading, studying market trends, careful listening and his own honed capacity to forecast, but yet despite all this preparation, it required undeniable guts to pioneer such a revolutionary move.

The consequence was that the market blossomed to absorb supply, the consumer benefited with prices crashing down, the players increased and our economic landscape changed for the better. The Patalganga plant was in no time humming at maximum capacity and as a result of the plant’s economies of scale, Dhirubhai’s conversion cost of the yarn in 1994 came down to 18 cents per pound, as compared to Western Europe’s 34 cents, North America’s 29 cents and the Far East’s 23 cents and Reliance was exporting the yarn back to the US!

A more recent example was that of Mukesh Ambani taking this vision forward with Reliance Infocomm [which is now handled by Anil Ambani]. In India’s mobile telephony timeline there will always be a very clear ‘before Infocomm and after Infocomm’ segmentation. The numbers say it all. In Jan 2003, the mobile subscriber base was 13 million, about 16 months later, shortly after the launch, it had reached 30 million.

In March 2006, it has touched 90 million ! Yes, this was yet another unusual skill of Dhirubhai’s — his uncanny knack of knowing exactly how the market is going to behave.

Money is not a product by itself, it is a by-product, so don’t chase it

This was a belief by which Dhirubhai lived all his life. For instance when he briefed me about setting up Mudra, his instruction was clear: ‘Produce the best textile advertising in the country,’ he said.

He did not breathe a word about profits, nor about becoming the richest ad agency in the country. Great advertising was the goal that he set for me. A by-product is something that you don’t set out to produce. It is the spin off when you create something larger.

When you turn logs into lumber, sawdust is your by-product and a pretty lucrative one it can be too! It is a very simple analogy but extremely effective in driving the point home. Work toward a goal beyond your bank balance.

Success in attaining that goal will eventually ring in the cash. For instance, if you work towards creating a name for yourself and earning a good reputation, then money is a logical outcome.

People will pay for your product or service if it is good. But if you get your priorities slightly mixed up, not only will the money you make remain just a quick buck it would in all likelihood blacklist you for good. Sounds too simplistic for belief? Well, look around you and you will know exactly how true it is.

Is The Indian Economy Heading For Its Finest Hour?

"For what it’s worth, a key conclusion from the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook is that recessions caused by financial crisis typically end with export booms, with the trade balance improving,on average, by more than 3 percent of GDP. I find this a disturbing result: we’re now suffering from a global financial crisis, which means that the usual driver of recovery will only be available if we can find another planet to export to."
Paul Krugman

With results still coming in, projections show the United Progressive Alliance is likely to win about 250 seats, making it a shoo-in to form the next government and provide continuity, a stable administration and progress on key economic and corporate reforms.
Wall Street Journal, May 16 2009

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s electoral victory, the biggest any Indian politician has scored in two decades, may loosen political shackles that have restrained the country’s economic growth as it struggles to free half a billion people from poverty.....Political stability will make India a more attractive investment destination as Singh, 76, seeks the funds to stimulate Asia’s third largest economy.
Bloomberg, May 18 2009

Many are called, but few are chosen, as the saying goes. But could it just be that this time around, and on a one-off, never to be repeated basis, India might find itself right there in the midst of things, with a 50-50 opportunity to add its name to that select and noble band, the chosen few. After all, someone has to lead the next global charge? The majority of the developed economies are either bogged down in the substantial quantities of debt that they desperately need to pay off, or weighted down by those elderly populations who are weakening consumption growth and leading to export dependence (Germany, Japan...). And as Krugman humorously points out, someone will have to add the extra demand which will allow global trade to start to grow again, so why should India not supply a significant part of this new demand, after all we are more likely to find consumers in India than we are on Mars.


In fact, I may not be the only person around who believes this, since India's Sensitive stock index, or Sensex, surged 2,099.21 points to 14,272.63 first thing this (Monday) morning, posting a record 17 percent gain in a brief period of trading following the news of the election outcome, before the surge prompted exchanges to halt trading at 9:55 am, Mumbai time. Markets closed initially for 2 hours but the decision was then extended to include the rest of the trading day, the first time ever that this has happened to the Sensex. The stock index had previously climbed 23 percent so far this year while the Nifty Index was up by 24 percent. climbed 47 percent In fact since hitting "bottom" and closing at a three-year low on March 9, the Sensex had already risen by 47 percent while the rupee was up 4.4 percent in the same period.

The rupee also powered up again toady, and jumped the most in two decades while bonds also rose. The reason for the surge is not a feeling of deep-seated admiration for the Singh government itself, but rather a sense of optimisim that it will give India the continuity and stability it needs to grasp the challenge before it with both hands.



The rupee strengthened 3.1 percent, the most for a single day since March 1986, and closed at 47.92 per dollar at 5 p.m. in Mumbai. That took its gains this month to 4.5 percent, the best among the 10 most-active Asian currencies outside Japan. This contrasts sharply with today's performance by currencies in the more export dependent economies, with the Korean won falling 0.2 percent, Malaysia’s ringgit dropping 0.7 percent to 3.5750, and the Singapore dollar weakening by 0.2 percent. The reason for today's general fall was negative investor sentiment towards riskier assets following the Eurostat report last Friday that the EU economies contracted the most in at least 13 years in Q1.



From "Hindu Growth" To A Global Powerhouse

But why so much enthusiasm now? Certainly India's post independence growth record has been notoriously uneven, with growth rates up to the 1980s low and extremely volatile. But then, in the 1980s and 1990s things started to change, economic reform began to get off the ground, tentatively at first, and more substantially later, while Inda's demographic profile started to improve, as the country faced the prospect of a steadily growing, healthier and better educated workforce. Post 2000 growth really started to take off - and has averaged around 7 percent since then. In 2007 the Indian economy maintained an impressive 9 per cent growth rate, despite the arrival of the sub-prime crisis (although not a few were talking of overheating, and "bubbles"), only then to drop back to a 7.3 percent rate in 2008, with the IMF are currently forecasting growth of 4.5 percent in 2009.



Evidence of the recent slowdown in the Indian economy is now - like the ubiquitous IT technician - everywhere, but this, it should be stressed, is a "slowdown" and not an outright crisis of the kind we are seeing in many other countries. GDP growth slowed in Q4 2008 to 5.3 percent (from 7.6 percent in Q3), a serious development, but not an outright disaster.



Industrial output also fell year on year by about 1 percent during the first three months of 2009, which compared to the 8.7 percent rise in the first quarter of 2008 was disturbing, eespecially since this is the first time we have seen a quarterly contraction in many years. Money supply has remained rather more constant, and M3 growth to mid February 2009 was an annual 19.9 percent as compared to 21.6 percent growth last year, so the rate of increase has only eased marginally. And in the meantime the annual rate of wholesale price inflation has fallen back strongly, hitting an estimated 0.48 percent at the start of May. But then, since money supply growth hasn't slackened that much, there has evidently been a significant weakening in internal demand (alongside the obvious fall in commodity prices).
A number of fiscal stimulus packages have been put in place, and as a result the fiscal deficit from April 2008 to January 2009 was 174.3 per cent above that for the corresponding period a year earlier. The revenue deficit was up by 278 percent higher, indicating very strong pressures on the fiscal deficit and a significant departure from the The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBM). This surge in the fiscal deficit has been widely criticised, and Standard and Poor's reduced India’s rating outlook to negative from stable in February, citing the danger that “continued loose fiscal policy would result in a downgrade” in the country’s credit rating. In the meantime it affirmed India’s BBB- long-term credit rating, the lowest investment grade level.
But there are reasons for optimism. As Duvvuri Subbarao (Governor of the Reserve Bank of India) argued in a speech - ‘India, Managing the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis’ - delivered to the Conference of Indian Industries on 26 March this year, the Indian economy has been spared the worst of the blast from the present crisis for two reasons. The Indian economy is still not sufficiently "open" to take a direct hit - only 15 percent of the Indian economy is export oriented - and Indian banks and financial corporations were relatively free of contamination from "toxic" instruments.
Why Should We Expect A Ressurgence In Indian Growth?
In order to understand what may happen next, perhaps the most import thing to grasp is what it was that just happened. In some ways a quick look at look at the Reuters/Jeffries CRB commodities index (see chart below) says it all. The chart - which shows the evolution of this index from the mid 1990s to date - immediately makes a number of important details about what has been going on incredibly clear. In the first place we can see how, after long languising idly around some sort of mean, a secular rise in commodity prices starts up around 2002 and last for around four years, eventually flattening out from between 2006 to mid 2007. After this there was a further strong surge forward in the autumn of 2007 which lead to a sharp spike upwards. Basically, you could say (with the benefit of hindsight) that this period from August 2007 to July 2008 was the "overheating" period, as the growth crisis in the developed economies which followed the initial wave of "financial turbulence" in the US lead to massive inflows of funds into the BRIC and other emerging economies. This produced a sharp spike in commodity price inflation, and monetary tightening in one emerging economy after another. A desperate attempt to avoid the inevitable correction in the global economy which would follow the sub-prime "blow out" was "forcing" growth in the emerging economies at a rate they could not withstand (given global resource constraints), and the thing inevitably had to burst. Commodities peaked in July 2008, but the correction in the real economy only set in following the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in October.
The Reuters Jeffries index hit an all-time series high of 473.518 on 2 July 2008, but was still stuck in the low 200s as we entered May 2009.

So the real point I want to make about India's current growth slowdown is that it does not have "made in Delhi" written all over it, it is not the result of any inherent problem with the Indian economy as such. It is rather the local reflection of much more general problems at the global level, whereby the Indian economy was first accelerated and then half crashed. And this is precisely why I personally think the recent (and highly controversial) US bank stress tests were so important, not because of their significance from a US banking point ofview (which is what all the fuss was about), but because of the reassurance they can give market participants that we are not going to see another financial explosion in the United States (as opposed to a protracted recession, and slow recovery). Uncle Ben is thus underwriting the recovery in emergent economies like India and Brazil by offering the reassurance that investors need that there will not be another violent bout of instability. What India and Brazil now most need is for Ben Benanke to commit to mainaining US interest rates near zero for a sustained period of time, so that people can practice "carry" with a certain degree of confidence that things won't unwind, then, I think, we are up, up and away. So, on behalf of everyone concerned, thank you Ben.

Here Come The Opportunities
India’s inflation rate stayed under one percent for a ninth consecutive week at the start of May, giving the central bank a much needed margin to keep the current record-low interest rates in place and offering the outlook of inflation free economic growth for some time to come. With so much slack in the global economy, a sudden surge in commodity prices like the one we saw in the autumn of 2008 is most unlikely, and so, as they say, while the cat is away the mice can well and truly play.
Wholesale prices rose a mere 0.48 percent year on year in the week to May 2 following a 0.70 percent increase in the previous week.

Not everyone is convinced the outlook is so benign, and Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said only last week policy makers need to begin to think about when they will begin reversing their expansionary steps. The current RBI forecast is for inflation to climb back towards 4 percent by March 31 as the economy gradually revives. Some evidence to support Subbarao's fears can be garnered from the evolution of consumer prices paid by industrial workers, which rose 9.63 percent in February from a year earlier, after gaining 10.45 percent the previous month, according to government data. Consumer-price inflation for farm workers was 10.79 percent. India, in fact, has four consumer-price indices and as a result tends to rely on the wholesale price index as benchmark because since it is felt the consumer price indices don’t adequately capture the aggregate price. However, the disconnect between wholesale and consumer prices that we can see at this point can be more a reflection of the fall in commodity prices and the presence of excess capacity on the supply side, so the evolution of these indices needs to be carefully monitored.

The RBI has now slashed borrowing costs six times in the past seven months, with the reverse repurchase rate being cut by a quarter-point to 3.25 percent as recently as April 21.
This means the bank has now lowered the benchmark by 275 basis points since last October, while the repurchase rate has been reduced by 425 basis points over the same period to its current 4.75 percent level.


As I say governor Subbarao is rightly cautious about reducing interest rates further as Indian consumer price gains remain high, suggesting that local demand hasn’t been completely dented even as the rest of the world remains mired in a recession. Cheaper loans are helping stoke consumer spending. “The fiscal and monetary stimulus measures initiated coupled with lower commodity prices could cushion the downturn in the growth momentum” over 2009 to 2010, the central bank said recently. “Notwithstanding the contraction of global demand, growth prospects in India continue to remain favorable compared to most countries.”
And between now and September, the central bank is set to inject another 1.2 trillion rupees ($23.8 billion) into the banking system by purchasing government bonds via auctions and buying back market stabilization bonds, which were sold in the past four years to drain money from the economy. The injection is estimated to be the equivalent of a 3 percentage point reduction in the cash reserve ratio, according to the Reserve Bank.
Subbarao’s optimism is also based on forecasts for this year’s monsoon rains - which look set to be normal. If this expectation is confirmed it will help sustain the unprecedented 4.3 percent average annual farm production growth recorded since 2005, boosting incomes for the three-fifths of India’s 1.2 billion people who depend on agriculture for their livelihood while keeping price inflation modest to feed to consumption of India's urban workforce.
Sibbarao is also aware that India is much less vulnerable to the global economic slump than most of its neighbors since exports only constitute about a quarter of the economy, as compared with around a half for developing Asia as a whole. So India is less open, and while in general terms this would not be an advantage, during the current slump in world trade it is an evident plus.
Industrial Output Falls Sharply In Q1 2009
India’s industrial production fell the most in 16 years in March as the worst global recession since World War II hit demand for the country’s exports. Output at factories, utilities and mines declined 2.3 percent from a year earlier after a revised 0.7 percent drop in February. Production was dragged down in March by an 8.2 percent drop in capital-goods output (which does not bode well for short term investment), with all other categories showing improvement from February. Consumer durables production jumped 8.3 percent from a year earlier, the biggest increase in six months.


In fact the (non seasonally corrected) output index was up in March over February, and substantially up from the lows registered in the last quarter of 2008. This impression is confirmed by the purchasing managers index, which in April gave the highest reading for the Indian headline manufacturing PMI in seven months. In fact the output index registered 53.3, a level above the 50 critical one separating growth from contraction. In fact the index has now steadily risen after hitting a trough of 44.4 in December.



Just as encouraging, the new orders index rose to 54.9 from 49.5 in March. The return to growth was primarily driven by an improvement in domestic demand, according to the accompanying report. "Although the rise in new business came principally from the home market, there was also some, albeit slight, improvement in foreign demand for Indian manufactures," ABN Amro Bank said in the official release.

Also worthy of note is the fact that along with the expansion Indian manufacturers noted renewed input price inflationary pressures. A combination of increased prices for some commodities and unfavourable exchange rates led to a moderate rise in input costs during April. This is the first time that input price inflation has been recorded in India's manufacturing sector since October last year. However continuing competitive pressures meant that manufacturers did not pass on their cost pressures on to customers, and factory gate prices were cut for the sixth straight month. However, the latest drop in average prices was the weakest in the current period of falling output prices.

Employment levels across India’s manufacturing economy were little-changed during April with increased production requirements leading to recruitment on the one hand, while cost-cutting pressures produced job losses on the other.

"The April PMI gives a very clear indication that business conditions in the manufacturing sector have improved significantly after a period of sharp contraction and gradual stabilisation. The headline PMI at 53.3 has signaled expansion in activity for the first time since October 2008. Moreover, the April reading is the strongest since October 2008," according to Gaurav Kapur, Senior Economist, India, with ABN Amro. "Survey data suggests that production was ramped up during April in order to cater to a pick-up demand and to build inventories. The output index printed at 55.7 for April compared to 49.3 in March, as new incoming business expanded during the month. The domestic orientation of the improvement in demand is clearly visible from the new orders index rising well above 50, even though external demand also improved modestly. New orders index printed at 54.9 as against 49.5 in March. This is critical as it suggests that domestic demand conditions are now strong and supportive for growth in the sector,"

Car sales and the production of cement, electricity and refined petroleum are also showing signs of recovery. India’s passenger car sales increased 4.2 percent in April from a year earlier, after a 1 percent gain in March. Cement production jumped 10.1 percent in March and electricity output rose 5.9 percent from a year ago, according to government data. But exports still remain weak, with shipments declining 33 percent in March from a year earlier, the biggest fall since at least April 1995.Goods exports dropped 33 percent from a year earlier to $11.5 billion last month, the government said in New Delhi today. That was the biggest fall since at least April 1995. Exports slid 21.7 percent in February.




Exports Fall, But Without Heavy "Export Dependency" Exposure


India’s exports, which account for about 15 percent of the economy, have been falling back recently, although they were still up by 3.4 percent (to $168.7 billion) in the fiscal year ended March 31. They did however fall well short of an initial $200 billion target set by the government before the September collapse of Lehman Brothers accelerated the world financial and economic slump. The government now expect exports to total $170 billion in the year that started April 1. The decline in exports is likely to continue until at least September, according to India’s Trade Secretary Gopal K. Pillai, while falling overseas sales may cost India about 10 million jobs, according to estimates from the Federation of Indian Export Organisations.

Imports were also down in March - by an annual 34 percent - and as a result the trade deficit narrowed to $4.04 billion from $6.3 billion in March 2008. Oil imports plunged 58 percent to $3.8 billion, while non-oil imports dropped 19 percent to $11.75 billion.
However, Subbarao argues, the Indian economy has globalized rapidly during the past few years. In terms of openness to international trade the ratio of exports plus imports to GDP increased from by more than 50 per cent in the 10 years from 1997–98 to 2007–08 (from 21.2 per cent of GDP to 34.7 per cent of GDP). Furthermore, the growth of financial integration has been even more rapid. During the same 10 year period (1997–98 to 2007–08) the ratio of total external transactions (gross current account flows plus gross capital account flows to GDP) increased by more than 100 per cent from 46.8 per cent in 1997–98 to 117.4 per cent in 2007–08. Furthermore, corporate borrowing from external sources has also increased significantly. In 2007–08, for example, India received capital inflows to the extent of 9 per cent of GDP as against a current account deficit of 1.5 per cent of GDP.
Twin Deficits?
India has been facing the so-called twin deficit problem for some time now, and the poor fiscal record, together with the continuing high deficit is the main reason why international credit rating agencies have brought the country’s debt close to junk status. The fiscal problem is not an easy one - apart from running a general government fiscal deficit of a estimated 9.9 percent of GDP, the debt to GDP ratio is stubbornly stuck round the 80% level - far, far too high.

Meanwhile, capital flows have continued to be vibrant despite the huge withdrawal of money from the stock market by foreign financial institutions, or FIIs. As a result, while India's foreign exchange reserves fell initially during the crisis, they have since stabilised, and are even now begining to show signs of increasing again (see chart below). At the start of this week India's Securities and Exchange Board of India reported that foreigners bought a net $828 million of local equities on May 13, the most since February 2008. Indeed they report that overseas funds have already bought a net $1.8 billion in Indian equities so far this month, well below the heady levels of 2007, but still a significant turnaround.

Equally interesting is the change in the composition of the capital flows. FIIs withdrew an estimated $15.02 billion in 2008-09, according to Reserve Bank of India data. The scale and velocity of the withdrawal in the second half of last year certainly put significant pressure on India's money and foreign exchange markets - and short-term interest rates surged over 20% while the rupee tumbled to an all-time low of 52 against the dollar. But other types of capital inflows remained relatively strong, especially foreign direct investment, or FDI. Overseas Indians, too, sent a lot more money back home, due to the uncertainties created by the turbulence in the the developed economies and the higher interest rates on offer in India.




Taken together, the measures put in place since mid-September 2008 have ensured that the Indian financial markets continue to function in an orderly manner. The cumulative amount of primary liquidity potentially available to the financial system through these measures is about Rs.390,000 crore (78 billion dollars) or 7 per cent of GDP. This sizeable easing has ensured a comfortable liquidity position starting mid-November 2008 as evidenced by a number of indicators such as the weighted average call money rate, the overnight money market rate and the yield on the 10-year benchmark government security. Commercial banks have responded to policy rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India by reducing their benchmark prime lending rates. Bank credit has expanded too, but slower than last year. The RBI’s rough calculations show that, on balance, the overall flow of resources to the commercial sector is less than what it was last year indicating that even though bank credit has expanded, it has not fully offset the decline in non-bank flow of resources to the commercial sector.

Of course, the present level of fiscal deficit is easy enough to justify, given the need to put a platform under the economy, and a number of stimulus packages have been announced by the Indian Government in response to the global financial crisis.
Just one such measure - the decision of India's Sixth Pay Commission (which was not a stimulus measure as such, but rather the outcome of the routine policy process, and possibly highly political in view of the impending elections) was widely criticised, although the implementation in the short term may in fact have been timely.
The Commission recommended across the board increases in salary for central government employees, to be followed in due course by comparable salary increases for state government employees. The payment was to be made in two installments, 40 percent (an estimated Rs. 1.57 trillion or roughly $31.4 billion) during 2008–09, with the remaining 60 percent coming due in 2009–10. The decision is, I say, deeply controversial, given the size of the deficit and accumulated government debt, but under the circumstances may well have served to place some sort of platform under domestic demand during times of global financial crisis.

The stimulus packages per se have also come in two installments, The first one, announced in December 2008, was largely fiscal in its intent, and included additional expenditure of Rs.3 trillion ($60 billion) over four months, a cut of 4 percent in value-added tax, as well as a 2 percent export credit for labour intensive sectors and other export incentive schemes.

The second stimulus package - announced in January 2009 - was, in contrast, mainly montary and directed towards credit easing. Among the more important measures an SPV was created to provide liquidity support for investment grade paper to specific Non Banking Finance Companies (NBFCs). The scale of liquidity potentially available was Rs.25,000 crores/$50 billion. Public Sector Banks were to provide a line of credit to NBFCs specifically for purchase of commercial vehicles. Credit targets of Public Sector Banks were revised upward to reflect the needs of the economy. Further the guarantee cover provided under the Credit Guarantee Scheme for loans to micro and small enterprises was increased from Rs 5 million to Rs 10 million with a guarantee cover of 50 per cent. In order to enhance flow of credit to micro enterprises, the government also decided to increase the guarantee cover available under the Credit Guarantee Fund Trust to 85 per cent for credit facilities of up to Rs 0.5 million. This measure should, in principle, benefit around 84 per cent of the total accounts accorded guarantee cover.
The India Infrastructure Finance Company (IIFCL) was also authorized to raise Rs 10,000 crores ($20 billion) through tax free bonds by 31 March 2009 for refinancing bank lending of longer maturity to eligible infrastructure bid-based PPP projects. This would enable the funding of mainly highway and port projects to the value of about Rs 25,000crore ($50 billion). In addition, in order to provide funding for additional projects worth about Rs 75,000 crore ($150 billion), the IIFCL is now able to access an additional Rs 30,000 crores ($60 billion) via tax free bonds once the current year's allocation of funds has been used up.
This surge in the fiscal deficit has been widely criticised, and Standard and Poor's reduced India’s rating outlook to negative from stable in February, citing the possibility that “continued loose fiscal policy would result in a downgrade” in the country’s credit rating. In the meantime it affirmed India’s BBB- long-term credit rating, the lowest investment grade level. S&P estimated that India’s national budget deficit, including off-budget items such as oil and fertilizer bonds and state government deficits, may increase to 11.4 percent in the year ending March 31 from 5.7 percent in the previous year.

Only last week Fitch Ratings also reiterated that India needs to cut its budget deficit to avoid having its credit rating lowered. “India faces considerable challenges in balancing the need for short-term stimulus measures to counter the economic downturn and the necessity of re-establishing a sustainable medium-term path for the country’s public finances,” according to the agency statement.

Fitch, which gives India a BBB- rating, its lowest investment grade, is worried that the new government may step up spending to soften the blow from slowing economic growth. If they do the ratings agency fears this will widen the general budget deficit to more than 10 percent of gross domestic product for the second year in a row in 2009-10.

And these ratings matter, since they influence investor decisions as to whether or not to hold rupee denominated assets. It should be noted however, that the ratings agencies generally have responded well to the latest election result. Both S&P and Moody’s Investors Service, were both emphasising yesterday just how the outcome gives India's government a chance to improve its fiscal situation.

The poll result gives the government more “political space” to sell stakes in state-run companies and improve revenue, according to Moody’s senior analyst Aninda Mitra, while S&P’s director of sovereign ratings Takahira Ogawa commented that the result means “there is a possibility for the government to implement various measures to reform for further expansion of the economy and for the fiscal consolidation.”


Current Account Blues?
As suggested throughout this post, the tailwinds behind the Indian economy are now incredibly favourable. A new government has just been elected which should provide stability to the country, and continuity in the realm of economic policy. The changing age structure of India’s population means that the proportion of the Indian population in the working age group (15–64 age bracket) is set to rise from 60.9 per cent in 2000 , to one which will surpass that if a developed economy like Japan by 2012, and continue to climb steadily to 66 per cent by 2030. But it isn't only quantity which is important here. Quality also matters. The nutritional status of India's population is improving rapidly, with calorie and other macro and micro nutrient deficiency on the decline. According to the 2001 Census, the literacy rate of India's population climbed from 51.54 percent in 1991 to 65.38 per cent in 2001. India will thus, in the years to come, find itself with a younger, healthier, better educated and thus more productive workforce than ever before.
At the same time, the massive slack which exists in the global economy means that Indian now has a more-or-less unique opportunity to accelerate the development process at non-inflationary growth rates well above those which would have been envisaged only two or three years ago. At the same time, as the age structure has shifted, and the weight of child dependence has reduced, India's savings rate has risen steadily from 23.4 per cent of GDP in 2000–01 to 35.4 per cent in 2007–08. During the same period investment rose from 24 per cent of GDP to 36.3 per cent of GDP, suggesting the need for a slight current account deficit to cover the gap between savings and investment.



And to return to where we started, on where the demand is going to come from to support the current global recovery. The IMF currently forecast a 2.5% of GDP current account deficit for Indian. Given the extent of investment that is needed in capital goods, technology and infrastructure this is a small, even benign, number, and at the end of the day will mean that Indian is once more playing its part in the community of nations, by adding a little extra net demand to the global pot.

What WikiLeaks really means

"A small group of thoughtful people could change the world. Indeed, it's the only thing that ever has" - Margaret Mead, anthropologist.

An unknown individual who calls himself 'Australia's most famous ethical computer hacker' - Julian Assange - puts up a website that supposedly carries leaked versions of documents and communications on sensitive state subjects. All hell breaks loose, as the one of the states concerned is a mighty power, engaged in multiple controversial & costly wars abroad, and the leaks put a big question mark on the entire authority of the apparatus itself! Apologies in advance are offered to friendly nations worldwide by the superpower (perhaps a diplomatic-first of its kind). Red-faced bureaucrats and politicians patch up in advance on many issues likely to emerge! The website promises more and more juicy releases, nation after nation goes after the site's founder (and administrator) and finally one of them nabs him.

Welcome to the WikiLeaks controversy. Perhaps for the first time in modern history, a single individual has challenged the might and repute of the superpower that's the USA, and dragged alongwith the reputations of many others. Perhaps for the first time, world governments realise how vulnerable they are to what a single man can do to them. Perhaps for the first time ever, media and its unbridled power to create extreme transparency are under question.

This controversy raises fundamental questions which I will attempt to answer below. I feel the three questions raised are

1. Does a State have the right to do anything in the name of sovereign power? And then cover it up?
2. Can media truly exercise extreme transparency without upsetting human civil values?
3. What is the nature of truth itself? Are there permanent truths for us to hang on to?

Death by a thousand cuts!
It's rather easy to be killed by a single bullet. The mind will not get enough time to feel the pain. Getting stabbed is painful but it ends quickly. The real torture is when someone inflicts countless minor lacerations on your body, and death arrives of blood-loss, slowly and steadily. WikiLeaks does precisely that - putting entire legions of foreign service-men, diplomats, ambassadors, bureaucrats and politicians on tenterhooks - awaiting the next cut to their reputation, the next blow to the carefully built facade that's been holding the reputations for long. On the face of it, the whole business of doing business with foreign nations comes to a halt, as suspicions build up. It's the classic spy-vs-spy story, with WikiLeaks as the huge catalyst for aggravated suspicions.

A simple analogy, anyone?

Imagine that someone puts a secret camera and microphone inside your bedroom or living room, and records everything you do. And then promises to release stuff bit by bit, on some website (SharmaLeaks, for example!!), over a long period of time. The intolerable pain of having to wait for what's coming next can tear the family (or marriage) and the reputation apart. Our lives are like scratch-books - some incidents are scribbles, others deep-etched memories of things really important. When voyeurism prevails, both categories get mixed up in dangerous and avoidable ways.. and it's never good for anyone. There's no husband in the world who will want to live with his wife any longer if the complete history of every single conversation that the wife has ever done is made transparent. That's how humans are. We accept our partners, friends and colleagues on "averages". On an average, things work out just fine as the pluses outweigh the minuses. Try finding someone, any one, who has never spoken ill about you, and you'll end up searching forever. (the husband-wife example quoted was intentional; the reverse order is 100% certain!).

The State as the Big Brother
What's wrong with someone who tells you the truth? A lot, if the truth trespasses the thick line that separates concepts underlying individual liberty from those representing State's sovereignty.

The State is all powerful. The State is not to be played around with. The State can get you, anyday, on any pretext. The State knows it all, and there's no escape. And to live happy ever after, it is necessary for everyone to pay a rent to the State. In nations like India, rent-seeking assumes multiple forms, most of them illegal and unconstitutional, yet unavoidable (unless you are willing to learn the basics of law, human rights, and are willing to fight for the same). In developed nations of the West, high levels of media scrutiny keeps raw power of state under check.

So what is this "State"? The term represents the whole concept around which modern civilisation stands. Independent, powerful and supposedly benign national powers that take care of their citizens, provide for them and create an environment of peace and prosperity. Rule of law governs everyone, thereby levelling off any specific advantage a group may command. Everyone is equal before the law.

Who is this "State"? What's the permanence of people who make it up? Well, certainly the people who make up the State's machinery are not permanent. They come, they go. Some of them stay on for 30 or 40 years, making up the bureaucracies that we all so love to hate. But ultimately even they have to retire. No one stays on forever. Everyone has to die some day! But even though men (and women) come and go, the system keeps grinding, as the policies are documented, positions established and dogmas fertilised and kept alive. It never stops. It's the system that overrides all individual identities. Corporates like McDonalds may revel in their magnificent systems-and-process culture but no one comes close to the predictable repetitiveness of a State's bureaucratic machinery - cold, calculated, selfish, and always inward-looking.

Limits to tolerance - the empire strikes back

For centuries, kings, princes and authoritarian regimes have tried to carry a heavy pretense of looking democratic, open-minded and transparent. But history teaches us that limits to all these do exist. As long as peripheral and harmless issues are raised the State may pretend to actually get affected and take corrective action (on its own agents). But the moment someone points a finger at any core aspect of the State, the empire prepares to strikes back. And that can be pretty nasty. Agents of the empire (the police, the military, the administrators, and the judicial system) can cause harm that may take years to repair. And since the process of revenge-seeking is orchestrated by a body that's amorphous, foggy and amoeba like, hitting back (by an individual) is a very difficult and uncertain process. Countless examples exist. In fast moving systems like Singapore (a rich, developed State), the State precludes a lot of civilian retaliation possibilities by creating a vast array of repressive policies covering a wide gamut of civilian life en (no chewing-gum, for instance). Caning is a frequently used punishment (sounds medieval, right!). In complex and slow moving States like India's, most citizens are under-informed about their own basic legal rights, and can be taken to task almost without any effort by agents of the State (fear of loss of reputation if the police merely reaches one's home, for example).

Enter Julian Assange!
Well, to hell with the State, said Julian Assange. And he attacked where it genuinely hurt the most. The secretive communications that constituted the inner workings of the American State. Thus, he exposed not only the Americans, but also all those linked with them - other State-heads, informers, military generals, and so on. His WikiLeaks website, designed as a digital drop box, is a place where anyone can anonymously submit sensitive or secret materials to be disseminated and downloaded around the globe. In April, it posted its most explosive leak yet, a video shot by an American attack helicopter in July 2007 as it fired on a group of men on a Baghdad street, killing 12, including two unarmed Reuters employees. It continued in the same spirit thereafter "leaking" cables (communications) between the American embassies worldwide and their US Head Office.

WikiLeaks' commitment to what might be called extreme transparency means that it hasn't turned away documents of questionable news value or origin. According to WikiLeaks' credo, to refuse a leak is tantamount to helping the bad guys. "We never censor," Assange declares. No doubt, mainstream media's limitations (due to commercial interests) also got exposed in this melee.

How did it gain prominence?
Here are some of Wikileaks' biggest hits, that apparently have helped it gain the weight it has.

• Video shot by an American attack copter as it mowed down a dozen men on a Baghdad street, including two Reuters journalists
• Detainee treatment manuals from Gitmo
• Inventories of US military matériel in Iraq and Afghanistan
• NATO's "master narrative" for Afghanistan, which WikiLeaks said it unlocked by guessing the password ("progress")
• Stolen docs from the Swiss bank Julius Baer's Cayman Islands branch, allegedly showing tax evasion
• Confidential documents about sexual abuse by United Nations peacekeepers
• Deailed reports on corruption and political violence in Kenya
• Emails from Sarah Palin's Yahoo account
• Holocaust denier David Irving's emails
• Membership lists of the far-right British National Party
• An internal report from the oil trader Trafigura about its disposal of toxic cargo off the coast of West Africa
• Scientology manuals, including a list of URLs owned by the church, such as purehubbard.com and scientology-sucks.com

Since its launch in December 2006, WikiLeaks has published everything from the operating manuals of the Guantanamo Bay detention camp to NATO's secret plan for the Afghanistan war and inventories of US military matériel in Afghanistan and Iraq, plus plenty of dishier stuff—Sarah Palin's hacked emails and Wesley Snipes' tax returns, as well as fraternity initiation books and a trove of secret Scientology manuals.

Basic assumption about WikiLeaks
That what it says is actually "true" - who knows that for sure? The governments are in a state of vehement denial, and there's never going to be an official proof of anything. Those who are benefitted by any specific leak will never deny it even if it's false! So the truth, alas, is based on a fundamental assumption that Julian is not making a fool of everyone :)

Also, the whole story of WikiLeaks has strangely accorded a certain reputation and status to Julian's credibility, and people tend to speak of him with a certain level of respect. That's interesting.

The leaked cables!
Now the really juicy stuff started about a month ago when Julian Assange started exposing "cables" that contained intimate details of foreign policy of the US. This is perhaps the biggest expose in the diplomatic history of modern world. It proves just how vulnerable everyone is, in this age of nano-second IT connectivity and mass rapid media consumption.

Three critical aspects of the "leaked cables" -

1. How nations interact - It becomes apparent that most of what we study in the erudite tomes on "Political Science" is actually correct (what a relief!). It is true that "in international politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies but only permanent interests". The way the US diplomats have described the various heads of states is telltale. Who would argue with the descriptions accorded to the North Korean dictator, or the French president. And frankly, there seems to be nothing wrong in the way it's been done. What's wrong is that is that it got leaked, thereby becoming scandalous. Otherwise it may have gone on for years without any potential impact.
2. How nations will interact - If you really reflect on this, it becomes clear that one of the two things will happen (the second one has a higher probability)
1. breakdown in relations
2. a big hearty laugh, and move-on!
3. Immediate potential damage - Yes, heads will roll. The Presidents and the Prime Ministers who have been shamed brutally will find scapegoats. The diplomats who uttered the most honest observations will be removed! But ultimately, the needs and necessities of international politics are such that everyone will have to move on. They will take a deep breath, and move on.

Let's get real. The diplomats of any nation, in general, are rooted in reality and understand that every nation will try to protect its turf by all means. That Americans need Pakistani support in their war in Afghanistan is obvious. The Pakistani establishment supports terrorism and funds it, and hence will use the Afghan lever in all its negotiations with the West. If WikiLeaks exposes this, it will only confirm the worst fears of the Indians.. it will not tell anything new.

Do you hear that Mr Anderson?
Like the detestable Agent Smith in the memorable Matrix movie trilogy, the State - for now - seems to be holding Neo (Julian Assange) in its grip uttering menacingly "Do you hear the sound of that train, Mr Anderson? That's the sound of inevitability.. the sound of your death".

It is certain that world governments will not take to WikiLeaks kindly. They will do everything possible to have it shut down permanently. That the greatest proponents of free speech consider this as the right thing to do speaks volumes about the context in which free speech is truly allowed to exist. Let's face it - modern civilisations have a threshold limit of tolerating dissent. The moment it threatens to upset the balance of the State itself, it ceases to be able to exercise its right to exist without fear. Julian has been arrested, and may be put away for ever. Wait and watch. As far as I am concerned, Julian's courage (whatever the motives may have been) fascinates me. It's the ultimate tale of one man versus the establishment. It's very inspiring. It's very disruptive, and it's very much a story to be told to yourself when you are down and out.

Margaret Mead made her memorable quote thinking of a small group of committed individuals. The debate rages over truthfulness of motives, the limits of media transparency and the rational of extreme disclosure.
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